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October 20, 2022
The last week changed the way the Russo-Ukrainian War is being fought. In that period, Russia began using a little-known weapon that has the potential to change the way modern wars are fought: the kamikaze drone. This powerful weapon has proven capable of destroying numerous types of ground targets and infrastructure. So far, Ukraine’s armies have been unable to find a way to stop all drones from reaching their targets. So what impact could these kamikaze drones have on the Russo-Ukrainian War, and what will Ukraine and its allies do about them?
Before Russia started using these drones, the outlook looked bleak for it and absolutely brilliant for Ukraine. Russian forces have been pushed out of multiple areas in the Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts (regions). The combat has been so destructive in areas that it controls that Russia has been forced to evacuate civilians from them. The absolute high point for Ukraine came when the Crimean Bridge was severely damaged in a powerful explosion on October 8 (see my previous post for more information about this). That same day, a new general was appointed commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine: Sergei Surovikin, known as General Armageddon. He’s infamous in Russia for his role in an event that took place during the 1991 Soviet coup attempt, in which he ordered the tank battalion he commanded at the time to move in the direction of a group of anti-coup protesters, resulting in the deaths of three of them. After serving months in prison for this, Surovikin continued his service in Russia’s army and took part in numerous Post-Soviet conflicts. He later became the commander of Russian forces in Syria and helped the pro-Russian Assad government of that country take back the majority of the country’s territory from rebels, earning a reputation for brutality in combat. It appears that Russia’s government expects him to be as successful in Ukraine as he was in Syria, and they chose him to lead Russian forces in Ukraine despite his checkered past. Surovikin decided to bring a new weapon into the fray: the kamikaze drone. Typically, combat drones carry weapons like missiles and rapid-fire guns. However, the kamikaze drone carries no weapons. It is one! The drone’s operators can guide it to a target hundreds of miles away from where it took off, and if the drone reaches the target, it simply crashes into the target. An explosion occurs upon impact, and successful attacks are capable of severely damaging and even destroying massive infrastructure facilities (most drones have been used to attack these). Many drones don’t actually hit their target, and despite their powerful armor and low flight path, Ukraine has shot down more than sixty percent of all the drones in some attacks. However, just one drone can put an electricity generation plant out of action, and Russia usually launches so many drones in individual attacks that Ukraine’s air defenses find themselves overwhelmed. Major bridges, roads, and electric grid nodes are also vulnerable targets. The results speak for themselves: according to the Ukrainians themselves, the kamikaze drone attacks of the last week have already destroyed over one-third of Ukraine’s entire infrastructure. According to some sources, Russia has over one thousand Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in its arsenal (Iran has denied giving any to Russia), and only a fraction of that number was used in last week’s attacks. The destruction of the rest of Ukraine’s infrastructure is a terrifyingly real prospect.
This isn’t the first time that Russia tried to do something like this. At the start of the invasion, Russia also attempted to destroy Ukrainian military infrastructure with conventional rockets. Officially, it wasn’t targeting civilian infrastructure. However, it was indiscriminate in its attacks and showed callous disregard for the lives of innocent Ukrainians. One refugee that I spoke to some time ago, named Pavlo, told me of his own experience with that bombardment. His family was fleeing the ferocious battles of Donetsk Oblast(region) and had just crossed a bridge over a major river when a Russian missile struck that bridge just seconds after they reached land. Pavlo told me of the stunning flash and explosion, followed by the rapid emergence of a dark cloud that enveloped the destroyed bridge and the people on it. His experience deeply traumatized him, so much so that he has since found it hard to cross bridges. This is just one of many examples of Russia’s horrible actions during that first bombardment on Ukraine’s infrastructure and its people. Ukraine was able to defeat that bombardment, but this one certainly has the potential to change the course of the conflict and give Russia a significant advantage if it successfully destroys Ukraine’s infrastructure. However, Ukraine might be able to avert this scenario.
The fact is that numerous weapons capable of bringing down these kamikaze drones exist. One such weapon is called a signal jammer (my class actually studied this weapon a bit in my high school Physics 2 class for our unit on electromagnetism). Signal jammers simply emit an enormous amount of radio waves with the same frequency as those used by Russian drone operators. The weapon can overwhelm the drone with radio waves, which will prevent it from receiving the inputs being sent by its operators. If the drone stops receiving inputs, it usually just stops working and falls out of the sky. NATO and the US have pledged to send hundreds of high-tech signal-jammers to Ukraine, and they may be effective. However, the jammers have a serious drawback: they’re so powerful that they can cut off all radio communication in the area where they are being used while they are being used. This would make any soldiers in that area momentarily vulnerable to a surprise attack. A more effective weapons system uses rockets and extremely powerful computers and radar to launch missiles just seconds after such a drone is detected, and they’ve proven to be very successful at downing projectiles flying at a low level. However, only one country produces the bulk of these weapons: Israel. It’s no surprise that former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev specifically told Israel not to send the missile defense system to Ukraine. Israel, which borders Russian ally Syria, is being pressured not to provoke its neighbor with whom it’s been at war officially for the last 74 years. Ukraine might still receive the system from Israel, but it might take a while as Israel tries to find a way to do so without provoking Russia and Syria. So while Ukraine and its allies may find a way to fight the kamikaze drone threat in the coming weeks and months, its infrastructure will remain under threat until then. Russia may use this window to throw everything it has at Ukraine’s remaining infrastructure before the winter cold sets in. If it succeeds in destroying this remaining infrastructure, Russia might just reverse its fortunes in a war that has so far been disastrous for it.
References:
https://news.yahoo.com/nato-send-hundreds-signal-jammers-173432723.html
https://time.com/6223204/iran-kamikaze-drones-russia-ukraine/
https://ubn.news/nato-will-deliver-signal-jammers-to-shield-ukraine-from-drone-strikes/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63294698
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iranian-supplied-kamikaze-drones-russia-ukraine-war/
https://www.npr.org/2022/10/18/1129576360/suicide-drones-ukraine-russia-iran-shahed-kamikaze
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/17/fear-kyiv-deadly-kamikaze-drones-rain-down-ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/20/russia-iran-kamikaze-drones/
Image Sources:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/20/russia-iran-kamikaze-drones/
3 responses to “Game-Changer?”
Another method to learn about radio jamming is when suddenly all people in the area can’t open their cars. Guess why 😊
What an insightful and interesting article. Just love your blog!
[…] changed the situation in Ukraine’s favor. Meanwhile, Russian kamikaze drones (see post) are slamming into Ukrainian infrastructure with impunity as Ukrainian air defenses struggle to […]