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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, Parallels to World War II, Disinformation, 21st Century Conflicts
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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, Propaganda, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War, Unending War
October 13, 2022
On August 26, 1940, at the height of the climactic air battle above the skies of the United Kingdom between British Empire and Axis airplanes now known as the Battle of Britain, a small group of British bombers suddenly appeared in the skies above Berlin, in Germany. The planes dropped a small number of bombs on the city and then returned home. The physical damage was minimal, but the attack humiliated the German army and its leadership, which had previously said that no enemy plane would ever be able to drop bombs on Berlin (the commander of the Nazi air force, Herman Goring, went so far as to say that if an enemy bomber would ever reach Berlin, then people could call him “Meyer.”) Somehow, the bombers got past hundreds of miles of radar, anti-aircraft defenses, German air patrols, and observers on the ground, to reach their target and go back. The event is now considered one of the most successful wartime publicity stunts ever, alongside other massive propaganda victories that humiliated the attacked nation, such as the Doolittle Raid. What such events have in common is that they all serve as tremendous morale boosts for the countries that launched these missions, and they all end up humiliating the enemy. An event that occurred just last week might join this unique pantheon, and it already has, according to many.
Before sunrise on October 8, an explosion rocked the Crimean Bridge. Built in 2018, the illegally-constructed bridge (constructed without Ukrainian permission) connects Russia’s Krasnodar Krai (Region) to the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of Crimea. It consists of one bridge for motor vehicles and another for trains. Before the Russian Invasion on February 24, this bridge was the only means by which trains and motor vehicles could go from Russia to Crimea, a peninsula connected to the mainland only by the narrow Isthmus of Perekop (controlled by Ukraine right up to this February). With the capture of Ukraine’s Azov Sea coast after the epic battle of Mariupol, Russia gained control of the only land route from its internationally recognized territory to Crimea. However, while Russia is working on creating a viable road to Crimea through this corridor, the Crimean Bridge remains the primary lifeline of Crimea. Most travel to and from Crimea goes through it, and products that Crimea itself can’t produce usually go through the bridge too. At the same time, all boat traffic from the Black Sea to the Azov Sea must pass under the bridge. Its strategic and economic significance is undoubtedly enormous, which is why it was heavily defended by Russian fighter planes, amphibious and light craft, divers, traps for any would-be saboteurs, and even a group of specially-trained fighter dolphins (according to Russian media). Much like the German anti-aircraft defenses before the Berlin raid, the Russian defenses guarding the Crimean Bridge made it seem invulnerable. Yet somehow, somebody managed to blow the bridge up. Ukraine hasn’t officially taken responsibility, but the remarks of a few officials and official actions celebrating the bridge’s destruction, such as issuing the stamp depicted at the top of this blog post, make it clear that Ukraine almost certainly blew up the Crimean bridge. So how did they do this, and how will the bridge’s destruction impact the Russo-Ukrainian War?
As to how the Ukrainians blew up the bridge, theories abound. Some people believe that Ukraine launched several missiles at the bridge. The theory is not implausible, as Ukraine sank the Russian cruiser using Neptune anti-ship missiles launched from many miles away just months earlier. However, it seems unlikely that Russia would fail to intercept these missiles after that first failure a second time. The most popular theory is that a truck bomb blew the bridge up. Ukraine’s intelligence services have not been known to launch such attacks during this war, but the damage caused by the explosion is most consistent with that caused by a truck bomb. Russia also seems to believe that a truck bomb caused the explosion. However, many experts have also pointed out that the truck bomb theory is just being used by Russia so that it can label the destroyers of the bridge as “terrorists.” Another popular theory is that the explosion was caused by a bomb planted by Ukrainian agents on the bridge’s roadway or underside. This theory seems unlikely because the Russians monitored the bridge for such devices. Another possibility is that the explosion was actually caused by forces within Russia’s military who were disillusioned with the war and with the current Russian government. This could be the beginning of the military coup that Ukraine has claimed for some time is underway in Russia. One thing is clear: we might not know who blew up the bridge and how for some time. However, the explosion’s consequences were instantly visible, and the event’s repercussions will likely reverberate for some time.
Just days after the explosion, the biggest Russian airstrike of the war since the initial rocket barrage that kicked off the February 24 Invasion began. The attack was in retaliation for the bridge explosion, and the full force of Russia’s wrath was unleashed. Hundreds of Russian rockets bombarded cities across Ukraine. Ukraine’s armies apparently shot down about forty percent, and many more missed their targets. However, the sheer volume of rockets succeeded in causing significant damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure (Ukraine’s government has claimed that over thirty percent of the country’s energy infrastructure was destroyed). The barrage has not yet stopped, and Russia’s army is not even close to exhausting its supply of conventional rockets (before the war, it had over one thousand five hundred in its arsenal). If the barrage continues, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure will be ripped to shreds. Winter is already beginning, and no one likes the idea of Ukrainian homes without heating and Ukrainian soldiers without useful electronic devices. Russia could use the opportunity to launch a counterattack to finally halt Ukraine’s fantastic advance across much of the Russian-occupied territory in the country. If this happens, the war will likely halt as both sides dig in for the winter. What comes next, no one can say. But Ukraine seems to have angered the Russian bear to the point where it finally struck back. One can say that, perhaps, Ukraine went a bridge too far.
References:
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-13-22
https://en.as.com/en/2022/03/09/latest_news/1646854579_184608.html
https://www.berlinluftterror.com/blog/28-august-1940-raf
https://www.ft.com/content/6e807a1a-f5b7-4e04-8770-6dec3835f13c
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/10/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bridge-linking-russia-crimean-peninsula-2022-10-08/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2022/10/14/ukraine-infrastructure-damage/
https://www.wingsofhistory.org/the-raf-brings-the-war-to-berlin/
https://www.yahoo.com/video/crimean-bridge-guarded-fighter-jets-131839779.html
Image Sources:
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-10-22/index.html
One response to “A Bridge Too Far”
[…] came when the Crimean Bridge was severely damaged in a powerful explosion on October 8 (see my previous post for more information about this). That same day, a new general was appointed commander of all […]