Reserves, Referendums, and Resignation

A Recipe for War

4 years ago

Pro-Russian billboards in the separatist-controlled city of Luhansk, Ukraine. They were put up there by Russian and separatist authorities who plan to hold a referendum over the possible annexation of the region by Russia this very month.

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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, Parallels to World War II, Annexation, Disinformation, The Involvement of the United States in the Russo-Ukrainian War

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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, Propaganda, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War

September 22, 2022

On September 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the rest of the Russian government announced the first Russian military mobilization since World War II. As many as three hundred thousand men (about 1% of all Russians eligible for recruitment) have been called up by Russia’s Armed Forces, and these soldiers will soon be sent to the front lines of Ukraine. They are either military reservists or civilians who have had some military training. Protests flared up immediately all over Russia, leading to the arrest of hundreds of demonstrators. Criticism of the mobilization came from almost every country outside Russia and even prominent world leaders like US President Joe Biden. Yet this was almost wholly ignored by Russia’s leadership, who went ahead with the mobilization. At the same time, another action being undertaken by the Russian government is being subject to widespread condemnation. Just days before the announcement of the mobilization, Russia’s government announced plans for an illegal referendum to be held in all four regions of Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk), whose territory is mostly occupied by its forces and separatist allies. This referendum will ask the inhabitants of these regions whether or not they want their region to join the Russian Federation. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 in a similar manner shortly after it occupied the region. Russia’s government rigged the illegal referendum that was held there to ensure that pro-Russian votes far outnumbered those opposed to Russia’s occupation of the region. Observers expect Russia’s government also to rig this referendum in its favor, and then formally annex them. So why is Russia taking these drastic measures, and how could they affect the war in Ukraine?

Russian police disrupt an unsanctioned demonstration against the mobilization. The Russian government has detained over one thousand people participating in such protests.

Analysts everywhere believe that Russia’s main reason for its mobilization is to replenish its forces. According to the Russian government, only 6,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives in Ukraine. However, US military intelligence estimates that Russia has suffered nearly 80,000 casualties since the beginning of the war. It also suffered considerable losses in materiel (See this post for materiel loss statistics). And many hard-earned Russian gains were erased in a powerful Ukrainian offensive that recently drove the Russians from most of Kharkiv Oblast (Region). The offensive isn’t even over yet, and the Russians are poised to lose even more ground, men, and weapons to the Ukrainians. Russia desperately needs professional soldiers to replenish its losses. This is why it’s mobilizing three hundred thousand men right now. It’s either that or a possible collapse of the front where the Ukrainian offensive is taking place. That same Ukrainian offensive is also why Russia is holding referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine right now. Putin originally wanted to hold them much earlier, as he expected Russia’s armies to fully defeat Ukraine shortly after the invasion began on February 24, 2022. However, when it became apparent that the war wouldn’t be short, Putin and the Russian government decided to wait until conditions improved to hold the referendum. When the Ukrainian offensive began, Russia suddenly announced that it would hold the referendum that it had put on pause for so long. This is because it wants to formally annex the territory it still controls before the Ukrainians liberate it. Its leaders have essentially resigned themselves to the fact that they aren’t winning the war and that major changes need to happen. Once the referendum is carried out, all four regions (even parts still controlled by Ukrainian forces) will officially be integrated into Russia (of course, only Russia and several allied nations will recognize these regions as a legal part of Russia). Ultimately, the mobilization and the referendum will impact the Russo-Ukrainian War and may majorly influence its progress.

The mobilization probably won’t have a very significant impact if only three hundred thousand soldiers are drafted into Russia’s armies. This will no doubt offer Russia a temporary relief, and the replenishment of its ranks will likely allow it to hold the line against the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russia has been so thoroughly weakened that an offensive by its forces to retake the territories recently liberated by Ukrainian soldiers is highly unlikely. Mobilization of an even larger number of soldiers, though, could have a major impact. A massive Russian army could use the classic Russian tactic of the human wave (simply a massive army that overwhelms another by numbers alone) to attack Ukraine’s forces along the 1,000-km front. However, Russia’s people are not exactly enthusiastic about such a possibility, and the protests during the first round of mobilization show that even it may be too much for Russians, who are tired of seeing their young men get sent off to war every couple of decades. So ultimately, it’s unlikely that Putin will risk the political consequences of another round of mobilization, meaning this one won’t have such an outsized effect on the conflict. However, the referendum is a different story. Once it is carried out, Russia’s government will take responsibility for the defense of the people in the regions where the referendum will take place, as they will officially become “Russian territory,” even if the international community views these territories as Ukrainian land. This means that the “special military operation” could snowball into full-scale war if Ukraine makes military maneuvers on this new “Russian territory.” It does not help that, in his address announcing the start of the mobilization, Putin also promised to use “any means necessary” to win the war and protect Russia. He directly stated that nuclear weapons aren’t out of the question. As has happened many times throughout this conflict, fears of a nuclear attack by Russia were ultimately unrealized. However, Putin’s address made a nuclear attack a real possibility. I never like thinking about such a dreadful scenario. I certainly don’t like thinking about it now.