Advancing…Step by Step

A Recipe for War

4 years ago

A Ukrainian soldier inspects the remains of a Russian tank after a failed river crossing by a Russian battalion. Destroyed pieces of Russian equipment just like this now lie abandoned and derelict all over the parts of Ukraine that have seen fighting.

A Doomed River Crossing Shows the Perils of Entrapment in the War's East - The New York Times — A Ukrainian soldier inspects the remains of a Russian tank after a failed river crossing by a Russian battalion. Destroyed pieces of Russian equipment just like this now lie abandoned and derelict all over the parts of Ukraine that have seen fighting.

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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, The Involvement of the United States in the Russo-Ukrainian War, 21st Century Conflicts, Disinformation, Historical Education, Military History, Parallels to World War II, Russo-Ukrainian War, Syrian Civil War, The Involvement of the United States in the Russo-Ukrainian War

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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Repercussions of Events, Current Views, Motives Behind Conflict, Weaponizing History, Propaganda, Historical Education, Unending War, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War

June 23, 2022

“The Tu-104 is the fastest aircraft, it will take you to your tomb in two minutes.”

-Lyric taken from 1960s Soviet folk song called “The Tu-104 is the Best Aircraft,” played to the tune of Chopin’s Funeral March. (Tu-104 is a jet airliner developed from a Soviet bomber plane. About 1 in 5 of all Tu-104s built were destroyed in crashes.)

Countless songs, Internet memes, jokes like the one above, and other mockeries of numerous problems in Soviet and Russian military technology have popped up all over the world. Since the start of the Invasion of Ukraine, more jokes have emerged mocking the Russian army, the failures of its equipment, and all the other things that have gone wrong for it throughout the course of the Invasion. The jokes make one thing clear: Russia has underperformed expectations, and has impressed many people with its ability to consistently fail. Coming off the heels of the hugely successful campaign in Syria, Russia’s army was expected by many to crush Ukraine in a short, decisive war. At the start of the invasion, observers made gloomy predictions for Ukraine and its army. Some expected it to be overrun in mere days, and were already making predictions for what Russia would do once it conquered the country. Yet in the weeks and months after that, Russia’s would-be-blitzkrieg campaign ground almost, though not completely, to a halt. The Ukrainians resisted ferociously, and the world came to realize that the war would not end quickly. To this day, there is no end in sight.

In the last 4 months, Russia has conquered a significant amount of territory, amounting to more than 20% of the land within Ukraine’s internationally recognized boundaries. It’s won some major symbolic victories, such as the 3-month-long Siege of Mariupol, which resulted in the destruction or capture of much of Ukraine’s army there, and which also gave Russia complete control over the coastline of the Azov Sea. Russia has achieved other successes, namely the capture of most of Ukraine’s Donbass area, which was stated as a major goal of the invasion by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet these victories are small in comparison with what many expected Russia to achieve by now. And Russia’s losses over the past 4 months have been astounding. According to NATO sources, more than 15,000 Russian soldiers and Russian-backed separatist fighters have been killed over the past 4 months. This means that more Russian soldiers have been killed in these 4 months in Ukraine than in the 10 years of the Soviet Union’s unsuccessful intervention in Afghanistan, and this toll will surely rise in the coming months. At least 35,000 Russian soldiers are also believed by NATO to have been wounded in the Invasion. The toll on Russian military equipment is just as shocking. Ukraine’s armed forces stunned the world on April 14, when they sunk the Russian warship Moskva. This was the largest ship sunk by enemy fire since World War II. About 10 other Russian surface ships have been sunk, and 10 others damaged (Almost 30% of all Russian surface ships). Between 2,500 and 3,000 Russian tanks and armored vehicles have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured, and another 1,000 have been damaged (about 10% of all Russian fighting vehicles). Meanwhile, almost 100 Russian planes or helicopters and another 100 drones have been destroyed (about 10% of all Russian planes and 20% of all Russian drones). These statistics underscore the fact that Russia’s military losses in this invasion have been truly massive. So why did this happen?

Russian tanks finally enter Kyiv-destroyed and on display. Destroyed Russian vehicles like this one now stand in a major exhibition in Kyiv’s city center, for all to see.

Several major factors played a role in the debacle that Russia now finds itself in. One of them is Russia’s heavy reliance on old, Soviet weaponry. In the lists of destroyed Russian equipment, names like the BMP-3 tank and the Sukhoi Su-25 plane, both originally made in the 1980s, constantly pop up. These old weapons are powerful but haven’t always been fully adapted to 21st-century warfare. Plus, these weapons, and even more modern ones, have been plagued with numerous design flaws. A good example of this is the Russian T-90 tank, which was built to replace the accident-prone T-80, and was believed to be powerful enough to rival modern American tanks. Yet these T-90s have a major design flaw: relatively weak protection of ammunition. Ukrainian anti-tank crews have destroyed numerous otherwise well-armored T-90s with a single hit to the location of the ammunition, which explodes upon impact. In fact, the ammunition on these tanks is so volatile that there have been reports of tanks just randomly exploding while being loaded onto trains to be shipped onto the front lines. The tanks that don’t explode are then shipped onto the front lines to soldiers who have been demoralized by the intensity and slow pace of fighting…if they even make it there at all. Many tanks or their supplies go through Belarussian railroads, which activists have been sabotaging for some time. The problem of railroad sabotage has gotten so bad that it’s likely that those caught will now face the death penalty. Yet the sabotage hasn’t ended. So this combination of design flaws, low morale, and a compromised supply system is a major reason for why Russia’s armed forces have underperformed in Ukraine. Another reason is that, while Russia’s military spending has shot up 40% since the start of the invasion according to Reuters, a large chunk of it is being lost to corruption. According to the ex-foreign minister of Russia Andrei Kozyrev, much of the money that Russia hoped to use for the modernization of its military got stolen by Russian oligarchs and corrupt officials who then used it on everything from mega-yachts to purchasing EU citizenship. This isn’t surprising, because Russia has been ranked by Transparency International as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Its defense sector is particularly vulnerable. So it’s not shocking that Russian units aren’t always able to get the weapons they need, because the money that was supposed to be spent on making them got stolen. Another huge problem is likely due to the hubris of Russia’s leaders. Kozyrev believes that Russia’s leaders, including Putin, have come to believe the things that they’ve been saying about Russia’s glory and power, and the disunity and weakness of Western powers. They certainly expected Russia’s weapons to wipe out everything in their path, and with minimal resistance. Needless to say, this didn’t happen, and now Russia’s army is paying the price. So a combination of the famous unreliability of Russian tech, low morale, bad supply systems, extensive corruption, and bad politicians came together to create the situation that we are now seeing unfold in Russia’s army. This would have been bad enough even without the heroic resistance of Ukrainian soldiers and the support that Ukraine is receiving from the West, but the fact that these things are happening is only causing even more problems. Ultimately, Russia’s military is so large and powerful that it’s unlikely that it will suffer a total collapse. And it will probably continue its slow, costly advance across the Ukrainian steppe. One thing is certain, though. Russia’s army has failed to meet expectations. Instead of tanks riding into Kyiv’s city center as the first wave of occupation, they are now towed there, destroyed, and displayed there so that the world can see the full extent of Russia’s failure.