Victory?

A Recipe for War

4 years ago

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, surrounded by Ukrainian soldiers and government officials, watches as the Ukrainian flag is once again raised above the Izyum, a city re-captured by the Ukrainians in their latest offensive.

Ukraine's Zelensky makes surprise visit to recaptured Izium: 'the enemy is gone, they have fled' | South China Morning Post — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, surrounded by Ukrainian soldiers and government officials, watches as the Ukrainian flag is once again raised above the Izyum, a city re-captured by the Ukrainians in their latest offensive.

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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, Parallels to World War II

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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War

September 15, 2022

On September 10, 2022, the city of Moscow lit up to celebrate the “Day of the City,” an annual holiday to celebrate the history and culture of Moscow. It included a dazzling display of fireworks. A joke started circulating throughout the Russian-speaking world: Moscow was celebrating the Liberation of Izyum, a major Ukrainian city freed from Russian occupation that very same day. Indeed, the bizarre contrast between scenes of celebration in Moscow and scenes of celebration in the liberated towns of Eastern Ukraine, liberated by Ukrainian forces, was stunning. It was as if they were celebrating the same thing with the same enthusiasm, though they obviously weren’t. However, it was clear that Ukrainians had far more to celebrate than their Russian counterparts.

In the last week, Ukraine’s Armed Forces pulled off the unthinkable. A massive Ukrainian army swept through Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv Oblast in one week. The offensive took virtually all observers (including myself), who had been expecting an offensive in the South, which the Ukrainians had been promising for some time (hypothetical scenarios I came up with in a previous post), by complete surprise. So how did the Ukrainians pull this off, and what will they do next?

IIn that same post, I made one distinction between the ultimately unrealized Ukrainian Southern Summer Counteroffensive and the famous World War II Operation Bagration, in which the Soviets destroyed several Nazi Armies and liberated much of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. I argued that the Ukrainians lacked the element of surprise, as their leaders had promised an offensive in the South for some time. It turns out that, much like the efforts of the Soviets to fool the Nazis into thinking an offensive would not take place, the Ukrainians had been spending all this time deceiving their Russian foes, who were caught off guard when the offensive finally occurred, in the place where they were least expecting it. According to Politico, even Western leaders were surprised by the offensive and its successes. The claims Ukrainian soldiers made to Western reporters in the weeks before the offensive claiming that Ukraine’s armies were plagued with low morale, equipment failures, and an unwillingness to fight were apparently a deliberate hoax. My applause to the Ukrainians, who, despite everyone’s expectations, succeeded in executing a deception operation in the 21st century, when such things are unheard of due to the Internet.

Ukraine has driven Russia out of an enormous territory that includes almost all of its Kharkiv Oblast (region). Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, had been practically at the frontline days before. Now, the Ukrainians have reversed the situation, instead putting the major Russian city of Belgorod (which itself is less than 50 miles from Kharkiv) just miles from the front. Indeed, Ukraine’s success is such that even Western leaders who were surprised by it are now worried about what it could lead to. Ukrainian leaders have been demanding the US and its Allies give it a powerful new rocket system that could be used to target positions in Russia itself and could lead to Ukraine’s attempt to recapture territory, such as the occupied parts of Donbas and Crimea, that had been occupied by Russia as early as 2014. The West fears that if Ukraine becomes too successful, Russia may be forced to take drastic measures to prevent its total defeat on the battlefield. Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) are certainly a frightening possibility, as they have been throughout this conflict, and Russia is more likely to use them if it stares defeat in the face. In the meantime, we must see what Ukraine will do next, and how its brave leaders and soldiers will surprise us next time.