Categories:
A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, 21st Century Conflicts, Parallels to the Cold War, The Involvement of the United States in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Air War
Tags:
Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War, Unending War
December 15, 2022
Over the past few months, developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War have taken the world by surprise. Powerful Ukrainian offensives have liberated the vast region of Kharkiv and the major city of Kherson. Ukrainian strikes have hit targets inside Russia, which is now increasingly being forced to use older and inferior technology. Russia’s relentless drone campaign has inflicted severe damage on Ukraine’s infrastructure, but Ukrainians have displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the onslaught. At the same time, as many as one million Russians are believed to have left the country to avoid its draft program, which may have to launch another round of conscription soon as Russia’s losses mount. Soon, Ukraine will receive a new weapon that will only add to Russia’s woes: the Patriot Missile system. There is a serious possibility that the delivery of the Patriot will tilt the balance of the air war entirely in Ukraine’s favor, putting Russia firmly on the defensive. So how might this happen, and how might it affect other theaters of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it launched a massive rocket barrage against targets throughout the country. Many expected Russia to achieve air superiority quickly. This has many parallels in history. Israel wiped out the air forces of its enemies within hours of the start of the 1967 Six-Day War, which is why that war was so short. US air forces quickly destroyed Libyan air defenses in an operation launched in retaliation for a terrorist bombing that Libya was responsible for. In 1991, a multinational coalition destroyed most of Iraq’s air force and air defenses (the world’s fourth-largest army at the time) in a single day. Russia was hoping to destroy Ukraine’s air force and air defenses in a similar manner. However, this was not to be. Though Ukraine did sustain casualties, its air force and air defense systems remained intact. Ukrainian drones and fighters battled Russian planes in the sky as Western aid started to trickle in. Due to Ukraine’s powerful air defense capabilities, Russian pilots even became scared to enter Ukrainian airspace. However, though Russia has not managed to achieve air superiority, Ukraine hasn’t either. Though recent Ukrainian air strikes on Russian territory show that Russian air defense systems are vulnerable to attack, they have been few. They haven’t fundamentally changed the situation in Ukraine’s favor. Meanwhile, Russian kamikaze drones (see post) are slamming into Ukrainian infrastructure with impunity as Ukrainian air defenses struggle to down them. So the situation in the skies above Ukraine can be considered a stalemate. However, this can change very soon.
After much negotiation, the US government agreed to give Ukraine an undisclosed amount of Patriot Missile Systems. It’s considered one of the most powerful anti-aircraft, drone, and missile systems. A ground-based, mobile missile defense interceptor, the Patriot system can detect, track, and engage drones, cruise missiles, and short-range or tactical ballistic missiles. It was first developed in the 1980s and has seen action primarily in the Middle East up to this point. It first saw service in the Gulf War, in which it downed some Iraqi missiles fired against US positions. Though less successful than hoped, the missile system did prove its worth. After numerous upgrades, the system saw service again in the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, where it saw far more success. The US gave the system to its most important allies, and the Patriots have successfully defended the territory of the armies that operate them from air attack. With proper training, soldiers operating them can protect all territory within a hundred-mile radius. If Ukraine receives enough missile systems, it can (by 2023, anyway) make the country impervious to Russian air assault. This will no doubt hand Ukraine victory in the aerial theater. So if this happens, what will the repercussions be?
With its own skies secure, Ukraine will go on the offensive. Most of the air war has been fought above Ukraine (though Ukraine’s armed forces have made some air attacks on Russia). Ukraine will be freed to launch more air attacks on Russian military bases, which might ultimately cripple Russia’s air forces if Ukraine receives the long-promised US fighter planes. Meanwhile, Ukraine can also start making plans to liberate more territory from the Russians, who will be severely weakened without air support. However, the most important result of a Ukrainian victory in the air war would be the cessation of Russian kamikaze drone attacks. If Ukraine can stop them from continuing, it will manage to rebuild its infrastructure, which has been destroyed in the last few months, preventing an energy crisis from developing during the winter. The Patriot missile system will have an enormous impact on the Russo-Ukrainian War. We’ll see it firsthand in a few months after Ukrainian soldiers learn how to use the system and finally bring it to the battlefield.
References:
https://apnews.com/b16125509161de8a7a3b4c38022534c7
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-patriot-missiles-game-changer-ukraine/story?id=95222548
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/09/ukraine-pushes-russia-out-of-kherson-biggest-liberation-war/
https://www.army-technology.com/projects/patriot/
https://www.britannica.com/event/Six-Day-War
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/u-s-bombs-libya
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-patriot-missiles-1767028
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/13/u-s-decision-patriot-missiles-ukraine-00073730
Image Sources:
https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-story-behind-ukraines-new-mig-29-fighter-jets/