Attack from the North?

Dec 8

A massive protest in the Belarussian capital of Minsk days after President Lukashenko’s disputed re-election on August 9, 2020. The protests ultimately dissipated, but they showed the world that there was widespread opposition to Lukashenko’s dictatorship in Belarus.

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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, 21st Century Conflicts, Disinformation

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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War, Unending War

December 8, 2022

August 15, 2020. On that day, a massive lightning storm that eventually engulfed much of my home state in flames struck. The smell of smoke was already in the air. At the same time, the spark of revolution was lighting up thousands of miles away in Belarus. That country had been under the rule of President Alexandr Lukashenko for twenty-six years. He ruled with an iron fist, ruthlessly suppressing dissent to his authoritarian rule. And he received much support from nearby Russia. However, after he was re-elected in what observers deemed a sham election on August 9 of that year, Belarussian citizens stunned the world when they marched out onto the streets and demanded Lukashenko’s resignation. On August 15, Belarussian protesters occupied many of Belarus’s major cities, including much of the central district in the capital: Minsk. They unfurled massive banners of Belarus’s old white and red-striped flag, which Lukashenko had himself replaced in favor of a design similar to the flag used by Soviet Byelorussia. When Lukashenko visited a group of workers from nearby mines and factories two days later, he wasn’t met with the usual applause he’d gotten used to during his twenty-six years in power. Instead, the workers started chanting, “Go Away!” At the same time, Belarussian dissidents who’d fled abroad founded a “Coordination Council” led by opposition candidate (and claimed winner of the 2020 Presidential election) Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to act as an alternative to Lukashenko’s regime. It seemed that a revolution was imminent. Yet Lukashenko’s regime survived, the protests stopped, and the opposition leaders who didn’t flee the country were arrested. Lukashenko still rules Belarus, but the demonstrations showed that many Belarussians opposed his rule. And in the coming weeks, the Belarussian opposition may play an even more significant role in the conflict as predictions of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Belarus are being made.

Air support fighters and helicopters at Luninets AFB in Belarus. Russian soldiers have launched attacks on Ukraine from Belarussian territory throughout the invasion. However, Belarussian soldiers are yet to join them in these attacks.

Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, a significant military buildup occurred near Belarus’s long border with Ukraine. Russian planes were seen in Belarussian airbases, and Russian infantry divisions built temporary barracks. When the invasion began, Russia heavily used Belarus’s extensive rail network to deliver supplies and reinforcements to its soldiers on the front. During the invasion’s early months, Belarus’s opposition launched a massive de-centralized sabotage campaign against railways that carried Russian soldiers and supplies to the front in Ukraine through Belarus. Analysts have said that their success in disrupting Belarussian rail transport was critical in Russia’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine in April. Though some believed that Belarus’s large army would someday come to Russia’s aid, this never happened. Belarussian soldiers never left their country’s borders, and to this day, it appears that they never committed themselves to the fighting. However, Belarus’s leadership has recently come under pressure to participate in the war directly and send soldiers to the front. This is because of Russia’s failure to prevent Ukraine from inflicting a series of major humiliations, from the offensive that liberated much of the Kharkiv Region to the recent debacle that saw Russia withdraw from all Ukrainian territory to the west of the Dnieper River. Russian President Vladimir Putin is desperately looking for a way to slow Ukraine’s advance. An invasion by Belarus might divert enough resources from other fronts to prevent further Ukrainian offensives before the onset of winter. At the same time, further delaying the attack may make it impossible until spring because of the winter snow and ice. Right now, it seems that Belarus will have to wait.

Lukashenko can’t send soldiers to Ukraine now for one outstanding reason: many won’t go. It’s one thing to serve in Belarus’s army without fighting. It’s another to be forced to participate in a war that many Belarussians consider unnecessary and unjust. The Belarussian opposition has succeeded in making many Belarussians oppose the war, despite Lukashenko’s powerful propaganda machine (which received much help from Russia’s own). The Belarussian dissidents who were forcibly drafted into the army after the 2020 Protests have also done an excellent job convincing other soldiers to oppose the war. And even if the soldiers loyal to Belarus will enter Ukraine anyway, they’ll become victims of another railway sabotage campaign by Belarussian dissidents. They will likely not get far into Ukraine as that country’s army has been preparing for their arrival for months. Such an invasion will almost certainly fail as a result. If this happens, Lukashenko will completely lose face. This is the last thing that any dictator who’s already hanging by a thread wants. Though the months since the invasion have been full of surprises, Belarus is unlikely to launch its invasion of Ukraine anytime soon. This is undoubtedly the greatest success of those Belarussians who gathered in cities across their country in protest against Lukashenko back in 2020.