On and Off…and On and Off again

Nov 3

On and Off…and On and Off again

Ships in the Bosporus Strait near Istanbul, Turkey. All freight from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean must travel through it. Despite fears of a Russian blockade, Ukrainian cargo ships haven’t stopped going from ports in Ukraine to the Bosporus. After traveling through it, they can easily access the world’s oceans.

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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, 21st Century Conflicts, The Involvement of the United States in the Russo-Ukrainian War

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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War, Unending War

November 3, 2022

On October 30, Russia resumed its blockade of Ukraine’s ports, which it had ended on July 22. For two days, the world held its breath, wondering whether or not Ukraine’s valuable grain supply would again be cut off. Yet, at the end of this period, a convoy of cargo ships left the Ukrainian port of Odessa and reached the Mediterranean Sea without Russian interference. More Ukrainian vessels left their country’s ports, and Ukraine’s shipping traffic is now at practically its highest level since the beginning of the Russian Invasion on February 24. It seems that so far, the crisis has been averted. But will the settlement last, and what might the repercussions be if it doesn’t?

From February 24 to July 22 of this year, most of Ukraine’s cargo ships remained in port while battle raged all around them. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has sustained heavy losses, including its largest ship: the cruiser Moskva (destroyed by Ukraine’s armies in April). However, it remains a powerful force capable of blockading Ukraine’s vulnerable coastline. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s fleet has also suffered heavy losses, including its flagship: the Hetman Sahaidachny. Thus, it did not come as a big surprise when Russia announced its resumption of the blockade. However, many were astonished by its failure to retaliate against Ukraine’s attempt to restart its international cargo shipping. This was due less to Russia’s inability to retaliate and more to political pressures that forced its hand. The first blockade (see my post about it) caused worldwide hunger and famine. It was devastating for many Third World countries that relied on Ukraine’s grain. It partially led to at least one political revolution (that which occurred in Sri Lanka over the summer), and its repercussions may continue to reverberate worldwide for years. That’s why world politicians did not want a repeat. The country that pressured Russia the most was, interestingly enough, Turkey. The Bosporus Strait, through which ships leave the Black Sea and enter the Mediterranean, is located entirely within Turkey. The country makes hundreds of millions of dollars by collecting fees from the thousands of ships that pass through the strait annually. At the beginning of October, Turkey raised these fees to five times their previous amount. It’s also building a new shipping canal nearby, hoping it will take pressure off the overcrowded Bosporus Strait. As a result, Turkey makes a lot of money off Ukrainian ships that pass through its waters to reach the Mediterranean and the world’s oceans. Its leadership did not want to lose this source of money, and Turkish President Recep Erdogan immediately began pressuring Russia to back off. The non-enforcement of the blockade may signify that Russia has bowed to Turkey’s influence. However, Russia’s military is still furious that Ukraine can ship its grain abroad. The grain trade is a massive source of revenue for the country, and cutting it off would severely disrupt its economy (which is precisely what happened last time). So is it possible that we’re seeing merely a prelude to a second, full-scale blockade? If this is the case, it’s unlikely to last long.

A Russian warship explodes in the occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk. Occupied ports have been frequent targets of Ukrainian attacks like this one, and more attacks will surely occur if the blockade resumes.

Most of the West and the Third World do not want a blockade like the one Russia launched earlier in the war. Therefore, they will likely take drastic measures to ensure that it does not get repeated. New sanctions are certainly a possibility, but it’s unlikely that they’ll easily deter Russia. It’s also possible that the West will punish Russia in an entirely new way. What it will do is ultimately impossible to predict. However, it’s unlikely that Russia will repeat the blockade without severe consequences. In the end, this threat alone will probably be enough to ensure it won’t.