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A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War, Disinformation, Disinformation, Parallels to the Cold War, 21st Century Conflicts
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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, Propaganda, Unending War, Weaponizing History, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War
September 29, 2022
On September 21, Russian President Putin launched Russia’s mobilization program. The decree that made the program official came after months of slow, grinding, and costly progress in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Ukraine’s recent Kharkiv Counter-offensive, which liberated hundreds of miles of occupied territory, partially reversed Russia’s war gains. The government launched the program to mobilize three hundred thousand soldiers, hoping that these soldiers would manage to save the collapsing front line. Prior to the mobilization, all soldiers fighting in Ukraine were officially volunteers and contractors who signed up to fight (whether they all were really volunteers is a matter of dispute). The mobilization will force many Russians with military experience and training to join the ranks of those soldiers already in Ukraine. Though thousands have been drafted and mobilized, many other Russians decided to leave their home country. By some estimates, almost a million Russians have left since February 24, when the Invasion of Ukraine began. Hundreds of thousands more will follow. So what lies in store for these “deserters” in their new homes, and how will the countries to which they are fleeing respond to their influx?
In the past week, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled what is now being half-jokingly called the “mogilizatsiya” (roughly translated to entombementization or funeralization). Traditional allies of Russia who have borders with it, such as Kazakhstan and Mongolia, have seen an enormous influx of Russians escaping the draft. Plane tickets from Russia to Turkey and Armenia now cost over a million rubles (or about sixteen thousand US dollars) on some airlines. Even Georgia, which has been hostile to Russia since the 2008 war in which Russian-backed separatists seized 20% percent of its territory, now has lines at its border crossings with Russia stretching for tens of miles. Finland, the only EU country that has kept its borders with Russia open since the start of the Invasion of Ukraine, has also seen an influx of refugees, though on a smaller scale than in other countries, as it has closed its border to Russian tourists. The Russians escaping the war often leave everything behind to get out of the country faster. People are getting out of Russia on bicycles just so they don’t have to wait in the massive line of cars at the border, with nothing more than some food, cash, and changes of clothes. Those Russians who do manage to leave the country (some unlucky ones get served draft notices right before they cross the border) aren’t exactly being welcomed anywhere. They struggle to find housing as almost every hotel and rental in the countries near Russia is fully booked by other refugees. This has caused prices in countries like Georgia to rise significantly, which has fueled anti-Russian sentiments as the Georgians see the refugees as colonizers and a potential security risk. These sentiments are brewing in virtually every country the Russians are going to, and they might make their flight more difficult.
The refugees are now being called “deserters” by both Russia’s government and the governments of the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The leaders of these countries, whose borders with Russia have effectively been closed since the start of the invasion, have called for the European Union and countries outside of it to stop letting the Russians leave. This is because, they say, those people should instead be working to overthrow the regime that they are trying to escape. If they all leave, the only people left in Russia will be supporters of Putin and his regime. The argument cites an interesting precedent. In 1922, as the Russian Civil War was finally ending and the Soviet Union was consolidating its rule over much of the Russian Empire, hundreds of anti-communist intellectuals were, over a period of only a few weeks, deported from the country by the government. The deportations were the work of Leon Trotsky, one of the leaders of the Soviet Union at the time. He believed that, instead of letting the intellectuals stay and resist communist rule or make martyrs out of them by killing them, the best option was to send them abroad. He thought this would make the indoctrination of the citizens of the Soviet Union and the suppression of resistance to communist rule much easier. He was probably right. The leaders of the Baltic states fear that if all Russians who are against Putin’s regime leave the country, it will be much harder to fight him. Many people in Georgia, Armenia, Finland, Kazakhstan, and other countries to which Russians are fleeing probably agree. However, the EU still remains committed to granting asylum to Russian refugees, as its leadership is determined to help political refugees who would otherwise suffer in Russia. While rising prices and even more refugees may increase anti-Russian sentiments and make the flight of Russians more difficult, it’s unlikely that the countries around Russia will stop it soon. Those who want to escape will find a place to go, which will remain the case for some time.
References:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-estonia-kazakhstan-d851fdd9e99bedbf4e01b98efd18d14b
https://www.ft.com/content/b12e20c0-cb57-4f2a-9f7d-4b72adaf4afb
https://www.rbth.com/history/326731-philosophy-steamer-lenin
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-referendums.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/28/russia-turkey-partial-mobilization-ukraine/
Image Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/satellite-images-show-long-lines-at-russ-idUSRTSBKVKT