Categories:
A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Disinformation, Military History, Russo-Ukrainian War
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Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Weaponizing History, Repercussions of Events, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War
April 21, 2022
On April 12, the 52nd day of the War in Ukraine, accusations of Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers in the fiercely contested city of Mariupol began to emerge. Since then, no evidence has emerged proving that the Russians actually did this. However, the incident grabbed the attention of governments worldwide, who were quick to condemn Russia’s use of chemical weapons. Unfortunately, what had seemed unfathomable just months ago seems increasingly possible as the war continues. Some of the questions on the minds of people worldwide are: just how likely is this scenario, what could possibly cause it, and what will the repercussions be? In this post, I will explore what might finally push Russia’s leadership over the edge and result in the use of chemical weapons, or other Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). I’ll also explore possible outcomes of the use of such weapons.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Russia’s leadership chose this date for several important reasons. First of all, they didn’t want to anger China by invading before the close of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which had occurred just days before. However, the date also holds a special significance in the history of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Eight years earlier, on February 23, Ukraine’s EuroMaidan protests finally succeeded in toppling the autocratic pro-Russian President of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych. Massive demonstrations sprang up across the country in response to the protestors’ demands to bring Ukraine closer to the European Union. These demonstrations instead called for closer ties with Russia. Just days later, on February 27, Russian troops occupied the Parliament of the Ukrainian province of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia days later. These events marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The fact that the current invasion began on the eighth anniversary of the war is not a coincidence. Russia’s leadership began the invasion on a historically significant date. Moreover, many experts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin, a self-styled “student of history,” also hopes to end it on another date with great historical significance: May 9. This day is the anniversary of the armistice agreement between the Soviet Union and the Nazis, which ended World War II in Europe. The day is known in Russia as Victory Day. One reason why the victory is significant is that it led to the Soviet occupation of the countries of Eastern Europe, which became an essential part of the Soviet Empire that Putin is now, in some ways, trying to revive. Furthermore, Putin has made some parallels between the war in Ukraine and the Great Patriotic War (as World War II is known in Russia). This includes, but is not limited to, accusations of attempted genocide against Russian speakers in Ukraine, closely (and falsely) paralleling the Holocaust, and Putin has repeatedly stated that one of the purposes of the invasion was to “de-nazify” Ukraine.
The annual Victory Parade in Russia would be the perfect setting where Putin can announce a new victory against the “Nazis” in Ukraine. However, Putin faces a serious problem: victory has not yet been achieved. Victory Day is only weeks away, and the invasion has lasted for almost two months with no major Russian victories to show for it. Putin and the rest of Russia’s leadership know they must provide their people with proof that the hardships caused by the invasion, spanning from the fallout caused by massive sanctions to the rapidly increasing number of war dead, were worth it. If they are to win this victory, they’ll probably need to use WMDs. But if they resort to such a drastic measure, what will happen when the dust settles? Some clues can be found not very far back in the past.
In 2011, a wave of protests spread worldwide, shocking observers everywhere. In Syria, the protests grew into a full-scale rebellion against the dictatorship of the Assad family, which has ruled Syria for the last 40 years. Many expected the rebels to win, but 11 years later, Syria is a ruined nation still at war. However, the Assad dictatorship is still intact and in control of most of Syria’s territory. It survived the war only because Russia launched a horrific campaign of destruction to aid Syria’s Assad dictatorship, today one of its closest allies in the region. Russian bombers razed Syrian cities controlled by rebels, and the Syrian government launched chemical weapon attacks killing thousands of civilians with Russian approval. Russia itself showed little, if any, regard for civilians that were being massacred by the Assad regime. This scenario could play out in a similar way in Ukraine, only this time, Russia itself will be launching chemical weapons. There are numerous possible targets in such a scenario, including the Azovstal Power Plant in Mariupol, which is fast becoming the city’s last bastion of Ukrainian resistance. The plant is heavily fortified, and it even has nuclear bunkers. However, it could still be wiped out in a massive attack that will allow Russia to claim victory over the actual neo-Nazi Azov Battalion defending it. This will no doubt be exploited by Putin and the Russian leadership in comparing the current conflict to the war against the Nazis 77 years earlier. Another possible target is Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second-largest city. If Russian soldiers conquer it, the morale boost will be enormous. Yet another potential target is the city of Lviv, near Ukraine’s border with several NATO member states. This has become an important stop for weapons from Ukraine’s Western allies in their journey to the front, and several Russian missile attacks have already occurred near the city. A chemical attack in Lviv would prevent the flow of weapons from the West to the front. However, if such an attack really does occur anywhere in Ukraine, there will be consequences.
Western countries have already broken off most associations with Russia. Assets of Russian citizens in many Western nations have already been frozen, while Western businesses have stopped most activities in Russia. However, some businesses remain, and Europe still depends on Russian fossil fuels for its energy needs. However, if Russia uses chemical weapons, these last links will almost certainly be severed in protest. Russia will then cement its reputation as a bona fide “evil empire,” its army and leaders will be accused of committing war crimes like the massacre in Bucha, and its people will live in a completely different reality than those in the West. However, Russia’s government has likely planned for such a scenario. The consequences will be severe, but it is doubtful that they will hugely influence Russia’s policy in the war. In the end, Russia can actually exploit the West’s actions by claiming that the West wanted to hurt Russia’s people and destroy the country all along and that these sanctions are proof of this. It can even claim that the chemical weapons were launched not by its own forces but by the “Nazis” in Ukraine. At the same time, the West can do little to meddle in Russia’s internal politics, and there’s really no way for the West to hold Russia’s leaders accountable for their actions. They’re certainly not going to hand themselves over to be tried in the International Criminal Court in the Hague. The response to a WMD attack would have one very real impact on Russia, as such an attack would make the Ukrainians realize that they are fighting not only for their country but for their lives. Russia will face much stiffer resistance as a result, and it will have no choice but to perhaps resort to using more chemical weapons and even carpet-bombing of civilians to crush the resistance…
If these are used at all, chemical weapons will likely be Russia’s WMD of choice. Biological weapons can end up backfiring by harming Russian soldiers. And while nuclear weapons are possible, Russia’s government has vowed not to use them several times, and they won’t have to use them if chemical weapons can do the desired damage. I sincerely hope that no WMDs are ever used in this conflict. I hope that Russia’s leadership will choose not to put thousands upon thousands of innocent lives in danger and turn the entire civilized world against it. However, we must accept that a scenario in which such weapons are used is possible, and we must prepare for it. In my next post, I will discuss possible reasons for the Russian government’s actions during the war. To do this, we’ll turn to Russia to figure out what is going on there (without actually going there) through its government’s actions, media, and, most importantly, its history.
References:
https://www.britannica.com/event/Syrian-Civil-War
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bucha-massacre-ukraine-russia-atrocities-evidence/
https://www.marshallcenter.org/de/node/1276
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/war-ukraine-color-victory-day-russia-year-rcna23650
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/another-russia-sanctions-are-work-rcna23453
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/23/russia-ukraine-weapons-missiles-nukes-
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