The Twisted Loop of History

Finnish Soldiers during the 1939-1940 Winter War.

Categories:

A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Disinformation, Military History, Personal History, Russo-Ukrainian War, Soviet-Finnish Wars

Tags:

Connections to the Past, Family History, Understanding the Past, Weaponizing History, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War

April 14, 2022

In my last post, I tried to express my concern about the slow forgetting of history and its potential consequences, citing the adage that, in some ways, history repeats itself if we do not believe that the past can manifest in the present and affect millions in the future. This time, I set out to show how echoes of the past can be felt as reverberations in real-time, both in the informational propaganda wars and in the blame game between two enemy camps, as well as on the battlefield. I‘ll use parallels between the Russian-Finnish Wars of 1939–1944, known as the Winter War and the Continuation War, and the current war in Ukraine as a starting point in my quest to find how past events can reveal hidden motivations, possible strategies, and potential outcomes of the current conflict. While it is true that this is the first major social media-driven conflict in Europe, previous conflicts also saw the Soviet Union, essentially Russia’s forerunner, use massive disinformation campaigns to influence public opinion and to blur the lines between actual reality and the “reality” that followed the Communist Party line. This is done by creating “intelligence” of one side’s plans to attack the other. Luckily, this “information” was received in time so that the side that was going to be attacked could instead attack preemptively. A great deal of the propaganda from the Russian side consists of claims that the Ukrainian nationalists (or “Nazis,” as the Russian leadership and media call them) were planning on invading Russia and launching a nuclear first strike. Miraculously, Russia’s intelligence service “learned” of this “plan.” Less than two days before the “planned attack” by the Ukrainians was set to begin, the Russians started their own invasion to “protect” their own homeland and “save” Ukraine’s people from the horrible “Nazi junta,” which they claimed was controlling Ukraine’s government. These outlandish lies are what people in Russia have been led to believe. In much the same vein, Joseph Stalin once stated that the primary motivation for the start of the war with Finland was the protection of the motherland, and the Finns themselves, from potential Nazi sympathizers and tyrants. He also emphasized that Finland shared a border with the Soviet Union, and that an enemy could use the country as a springboard for an attack on the major city of Leningrad. In fact, the real intention of Stalin and the Soviet leadership was to pull Finland into their orbit. In both the Russo-Ukrainian and the Soviet-Finnish War, the desire to bring a bordering country under Soviet or Russian influence became the main issue, but it was shrouded in statements about national security, protection of national interests, and a potential Nazi threat, real or imagined, from the neighboring country and its allies. The winning of hearts and minds of their people is based on the notion of immediate danger, which needs to be preemptively overcome to save a homeland fighting for its very existence in the face of an existential threat. This certainly is the crux of much of what is happening in this conflict. Now, let’s move on to the parallels between the conflicts regarding war strategy and military operations.

Putin's speech about Russia and Ukraine's history was disturbing — Russian President Vladimir Putin giving an Address justifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On November 30, 1939, Soviet tanks crossed Finland’s frozen border as planes bombed its capital, Helsinki. The Red Army’s actions led to one of the 20th century’s most brilliant displays of resistance against the Soviet war machine. As is the case for the current War in Ukraine, the exact motivations of the Soviet leadership are still under debate. Some historians claim that the invasion was just an attempt to gain more territory while also preventing Finland from being used as a launchpad for a potential future attack. Others argue that Soviet leader Joseph Stalin wanted to conquer all of Finland and turn it into a new Soviet Socialist Republic. In any case, the Soviet leadership was at least partially motivated by its desire to “return” Finland to Soviet domination, as the Russian Empire had ruled it for almost a century until it declared its independence after the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. The Soviet politicians and generals convinced Stalin that the invasion would be a swift and decisive victory that would be quite similar to the smashing success of the Red Army campaign in Poland, which had resulted in that country’s conquest and division with the Germans just months earlier. A puppet government to “rule” the newly “liberated” territories the Soviets hoped to conquer was created. The Soviet government even began to prepare for the expected victory, telling its soldiers not to cross the border into Sweden by accident. Also, it commissioned famed composer Dmitri Shostakovich to write a piece that the Red Army was to perform during its expected victory parade through Helsinki. The war finally began when Soviet secret agents launched a false-flag attack on a Soviet border post and claimed that the Finns were responsible.

The preparations for the war have a remarkable resemblance to the Russian preparations for the War in Ukraine. And just like in Ukraine, the high hopes of the Soviet leadership were quickly smashed, as the invasion of Finland, expected to last only a few weeks, dragged on and on. The Finns refused to recognize the puppet government, and the Finnish people and army hunkered down to fight the advancing Red Army. Hampered by poor organization, snow, and determined Finnish resistance, the Soviets made only meager gains. After capturing a few villages on the border, they faced disappointment after disappointment and defeat after defeat. They failed to capture any major cities, and the prospects of overcoming the numerous Finnish lines of defense were grim. The Soviet soldiers came to fear the deadly Finnish snipers called “cuckoos,” as well as the guerillas that would go behind Soviet lines and harass the forces there. Soviet casualties mounted, eventually reaching several hundred thousand. However, the Finns were becoming increasingly exhausted and were finally forced to negotiate as March, and Spring, approached. In the ensuing peace treaty, they were forced to give much land to the Soviets. However, Finnish independence was guaranteed, and the Finns remained entirely outside the Soviet sphere of influence.

One year later, the Finns launched the Continuation War with German help in a bid to recapture their lost territory. This war holds a special significance for me because my grandfather served on the Karelian Front in 1944. He served in the last offensive against Finland, where the Soviets managed to reconquer their lost territory. He loved telling me about his experiences there, such as when his division crossed a river after making the Finns think that they would do so miles away by launching amphibious craft with dummies inside. Interestingly enough, he somewhat respected the Finnish soldiers against whom he fought for their bravery and fighting skills while holding the Nazis and other collaborators that he would later fight on other fronts in utter contempt for their inability to fight so well. He believed that this was because the Finns were fighting for their homeland and that anyone fighting for the same reason would fight just as fiercely.

The truth is, we cannot know how this war will turn out. It could end soon, or it could take months for peace to finally return to Ukraine. However, it’s very likely that War in Ukraine will progress much like the Soviet-Finnish Wars, which it has closely resembled in many ways up to this point. If it continues this way, it can be expected that Ukraine will resist, and even if it loses some territory, it will remain intact and fully independent. However, this is only one possible outcome, which assumes that the Russians won’t resort to drastic measures. If this happens, the Finland comparison can be swept aside, and the world needs to prepare for a horrifying series of events that may eventually affect us all for years to come. In the increasingly likely scenario where WMDs are used without regard for civilian life, we can find some clues as to why Russia may be forced into such a situation and how the world will respond, in another place. In my next post, I will analyze such a possibility and try to discover what history can teach us about such a scenario.