No End in Sight

A Recipe for War

4 years ago

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger speaks at the World Economic Forum’s last annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland

Kissinger: The challenges facing the world right now | World Economic Forum — Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger speaks at the World Economic Forum’s last annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland

Categories:

A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Disinformation, Military History, Parallels to World War II, The Involvement of the United States in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Tags:

Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Weaponizing History, Repercussions of Events, Propaganda, Current Views, Unending War

June 2, 2022

On May 23rd, 2022, Former United States Secretary of State Henry Kissinger spoke at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Considered to be one of the most influential, certainly among the most controversial politicians of the 20th century, his actions have received both widespread praise and utter contempt. His policy of détente attempted to ease Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, and his tactic of shuttle diplomacy, in which he traveled to negotiate with virtually all parties involved in the conflicts that he tried to negotiate an end to, has been widely praised. Yet he’s since come under much scrutiny for his support of brutal dictatorships, like Chile’s Pinochet regime, as well as the perceived failure of détente to ease Cold War tensions. The 99-year-old Kissinger came under a fresh barrage of criticism once again because of his remarks at the meeting. After saying that European countries shouldn’t forget Russia’s importance in the region, he also called for a “return to the status quo ante”, or the situation before the invasion. This would put Ukraine back in control of all the territory occupied by Russia since February of 2022. Still, it would leave the areas occupied by Russia and pro-Russian separatists before that time under their control. He hoped that this would lead to negotiations that he claimed needed to begin soon, to stave off “upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome.” Ukrainian leaders were quick to criticize these remarks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s advisor Mikhailo Podolyak said that “‘Any concession to Russia is not a path to peace, but a war postponed for several years.” Zelenskiy himself slammed Kissinger, accusing him of supporting the appeasement of Russia. Zelenskiy said that “Mr. Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938,” referencing the Munich agreement signed that year, in which the European Allied powers gave the Nazis a Czechoslovak territory that they coveted in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to avoid starting World War II. Other international leaders also were quick to denounce Kissinger’s comments, such as Lithuanian PM Ingrida Šimonytė, who said that Kissinger was attempting to convince the West to “step on the same rake again.” This chorus of criticism shows that any future attempt at “appeasing” Russia will be shot down by massive resistance. Real concessions seem to have been taken off the table, permanently.

Ukrainian soldiers walk through the streets of Severodonetsk city, currently under attack by Russia.

Concessions to end the conflict are being avoided by virtually all groups involved. The reasons for this vary. In the United States, support for the new isolationism, which I discussed in a previous post, has remained strong. Because no US troops are being sent to fight in the conflict, Americans have been content with simply supplying weapons and other forms of aid to Ukraine, and have been enthusiastic about supporting Ukraine. In Europe, a similar phenomenon has occurred. Ukrainian flags can be found everywhere in its cities, “Slava Ukraini” (Glory to Ukraine) has become an important new addition to European lexicons, and other forms of support for the invaded nation abound. The people want Ukraine to win and support it with almost Crusader-like zeal in its attempt to reconquer its lost territories. European governments, riding the wave of support, are already planning the next round of sanctions against Russia, and they’ve already sent much aid to Ukraine, with more on the way. Europe certainly isn’t offering a clear path to peace for Ukraine. In Russia, the ruthless crackdown by the state on dissent has essentially destroyed the possibility of an effective antiwar movement. Dissidents who post videos on YouTube are now labeled as “foreign agents”, and most dissident journalists have fled the country. In Russia, people proudly wear the letter Z, a symbol of Russia’s military, and pro-invasion rallies are attended by thousands. The economy has suffered from the invasion, but Russians seem to have most living necessities available to them. President Putin and his inner circle remain fully committed to conquering more Ukrainian territory, and peace is not being discussed in Russia’s political circles. This is understandable, as any negotiations with the Ukrainian “fascists”, as Putin labels them, that would result in concessions would certainly be fatal for Putin’s government. In Ukraine itself, there is virtually no talk of peace. The entire nation has come together to fight the Russian occupiers. Even Ukrainians who can’t even speak their nation’s official language, including millions of Russian speakers from its Eastern regions near the Russian border, are fighting for the survival of their homeland. Before the war, many observers had expected Ukrainian resistance to already have long collapsed by this point. However, the Ukrainian state and military are still intact, and in control of 80% of the nation’s internationally recognized territory according to VOA news. The Ukrainian people now have one goal on their minds: to take back the other 20% currently occupied by Russia and Russian-backed separatists, including even those territories in the Crimean, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions lost in 2014. They are against all territorial concessions. According to a recent poll by Reuters, 82% of Ukrainians believe that their country shouldn’t sign off any territory whatsoever even if achieving peace would do so. All this shows that a popular movement to end the conflict and bring peace is yet to emerge anywhere.

Despite all this hostility to ending the conflict, government peace initiatives have been underway for some time. Talks between Ukraine and Russia were held in Istanbul in March and April, though little headway was made, and European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have on several occasions voiced their concern at the prospect of a long war, calling for a roadmap to peace. However, an end to the conflict is anything but imminent. The criticism of Kissinger after his remarks at Davos shows that even talk of peace is considered an attempt at “appeasement.” It’s almost considered to be an insult to the nation and people in Ukraine. This means that the conflict has the potential of dragging out for years. The disruptions that it has caused to global supply chains will continue, and the mounting casualty lists will continue to rise. Until a popular movement to end the conflict emerges, it’s unlikely that this situation will change. In this conflict, it seems that peace is not the answer.