A not-so-Frozen Conflict

A Recipe for War

4 years ago

Russian and Transnistrian Forces train together somewhere in Transnistria. According to CEPA (Center for European Policy Analysis), there were about 1,500 Russian soldiers in the breakaway Moldovan territory before the 2022 Invasion of Ukraine.

Categories:

A Recipe for War, Analysis of History, Current Events, Military History Russo-Ukrainian War, 21st Century Conflicts, Disinformation, Parallels to Imperial Russia, Parallels to the Cold War, Parallels to World War II

Tags:

Connections to the Past, Understanding the Past, Current Views, Propaganda, Weaponizing History, Repercussions of Events, Motives Behind Conflict, #A Recipe for War, #Ukraine, #War

May 19, 2022

At the center of the city of Tiraspol stands a statue of famed Russian general Alexander Suvorov, who founded the city in 1792 during his campaigns against the Ottoman Turks who formerly controlled the area. The statue is flanked by the flags of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Artsakh. All of these are unrecognized “independent” nations that control territory in various parts of the former Soviet Union. The fact that their flags stand in the center of Tiraspol is unsurprising because that very city is the capital of another unrecognized country: Transnistria. A visitor who knew nothing about it beforehand would believe that the place, which has its own flag, symbols (which have a suspicious resemblance to old Soviet ones), central bank, money, government, and even passports, is an independent sovereign nation. In fact, Transnistria is a de jure, internationally-recognized part of Moldova. This unusual situation has existed for the last thirty years. However, recent developments have made many ask whether the status quo will last much longer. In this blog post, I will explore the history of the Transnistria conflict, and I will discuss how the Russian Invasion of Ukraine may change its course forever.

The story of Transnistria began about thirty-five years ago, around the time when it became clear that the Soviet Union was falling apart. The Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic (as it was known then) was first placed under Soviet rule after the Soviets occupied the Romanian regions of Bessarabia and North Bukovina in the middle of 1940. The infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which secretly split Eastern Europe into separate Soviet and Nazi spheres of influence, gave tacit approval to the eventual Soviet occupation. Soviet leader Joseph Stalin forced the helpless Romanians to give the two regions to the Soviet Union, and much of it was turned into a new Soviet Republic: Moldavia. The Soviets were driven out of the region during the first days of the Axis Invasion of the Soviet Union, but they returned in 1944 in a decisive operation that eventually forced Romania to switch sides and join them against their former Axis allies. The Soviets kept Moldavia, and it soon became fully integrated with the other republics. Many people from all over the Soviet Union immigrated to Moldavia over the years (in the years before Moldavia’s independence, almost half of the republic’s population consisted of immigrants from other republics and their descendants), and eventually, the republic looked similar to any other place in the Soviet Union. However, the Romanian-speaking people there never forgot their Romanian heritage, though the Soviet authorities took great lengths to make them forget it (they even gave the Romanian language, which is traditionally written in the Latin alphabet, a Cyrillic alphabet in Moldavia to make communication with Romanians in Romania more difficult). There was, however, an air of coexistence aided by the prosperity of the republic, which was one of the wealthiest places in the entire Eastern Bloc, that lasted right up to the mid-1980s. In that decade, liberalization policies led to the emergence of a popular movement that called for the reunification of Moldova with Romania. However, a serious problem emerged. The Romanian nationalists wanted to make Romanian the only official language of Moldavia. The immigrants from other countries feared that they would be marginalized if Romanian would replace the Russian language, considered to be the Soviet language of inter-ethnic communication. Also, Soviet authorities were keen on exploiting this fear to destabilize Moldavia, and they hoped that it would prevent that republic from seceding. However, it was clear by 1990 that secession was inevitable, as the Eastern Bloc left the Soviet sphere and the Baltic Soviet Republics were declaring independence. In that year, pro-Soviet militants declared the creation of a new, unrecognized, Soviet Republic: Pridnestrovie (the Russian name for Transnistria). Full-scale fighting erupted in Moldavia when Soviet authority finally collapsed, and the new internationally recognized Moldovan Republic was determined to bring Transnistria under its control. The militants were beaten back in many places, but they managed to hold onto a thin strip of land sandwiched between the Ukrainian border and the River Dniester (hence the name Transnistria, as it is across the River Dniester from the rest of Moldova). The war between Transnistria and Moldova ended with a ceasefire in 1992, and the situation has remained virtually unchanged since. Moldova never did unite with Romania, and its government worked to protect minority rights to discredit the Transnistrian claims that the Moldovans would take them. In the meantime, Transnistria has become a conservative dictatorship backed by Russia, which keeps a small military force there. It’s isolated from the rest of the world, and not even Russia officially recognizes it as an independent country. Developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War may soon put an end to this status quo, though.

Almost immediately after the Russian Invasion on February 24, Moldova’s leadership closed the country’s airspace to avoid an air attack by Russia and denounced the invasion. Moldova has actively sent aid to Ukraine, and many refugees have left Ukraine by crossing the Moldovan border. Ukraine, in turn, has pledged anew its support for Moldova in its conflict against Transnistria. Now, Moldova may wish to join NATO to protect itself from Russia. Transnistria is a major hurdle to this because NATO is committed to accepting countries that have created a workable political system for all of their inhabitants. Moldova has virtually no control over what happens in Transnistria, which is controlled by a dictatorship. Also, Russian troops are based in the country, which complicates matters further. If Moldova really wants to join NATO, it will likely be forced to settle the Transnistria issue once and for all. The people who rule Transnistria aren’t open to giving up any of their power (though most people in Transnistria would be happy to see them gone), and Russia certainly doesn’t want to give up this valuable outpost to its NATO foes. If it can’t negotiate, Moldova may have no choice but to fight for its NATO membership. Conceivably, its army and that of Ukraine could march in, overwhelm the separatists, and retake the territory. There’s no telling what Russia would do in such a scenario, though. In a few months or so, we might just find out.